Download Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer by James Shinn PDF

By James Shinn

The goal of a negotiated peace in Afghanistan has been firmly embraced by means of lots of the capability events to a treaty. besides the fact that, arriving at an contract in regards to the sequencing, timing, and prioritization of peace phrases could be tough, given the divergence within the events' pursuits and ambitions. The U.S. aim

in those negotiations might be a solid and peaceable Afghanistan that neither hosts nor collaborates with terrorists.

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Overall, there appears to be a volatile combination of policy disagreement and sheer confusion about the prospects of a peace accord among nearly all the potential participants. Powerful forces in Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan would prefer indefinite warfare to any peace settlement, not least because of the vast sums of American money being spent on both sides of the Durand Line. In Afghanistan, these potential spoilers include local contractors (particularly security contractors), corrupt officials, and drug dealers, all of whom would find it more difficult to prosper in a peacetime environment.

The first and second objectives are “must haves” for President Karzai and his inner circle, and the third is a “must have” for the former Northern Alliance figures. The pace of the ISAF drawdown may be negotiable from Kabul’s standpoint, although it almost certainly must not conclude much earlier than the currently foreseen 2014 handover date. The terms of political restructuring, constitutional revision, the role of Islam, and methods for ensuring minority and gender rights are certainly negotiable.

Public opinion among a mostly illiterate rural population living in areas under partial or full Taliban control is shaped in large measure The Actors 23 by the ulema-led madrassas and mosques and by residual tribal structures. The Quetta Shura and other Taliban leaders have some capacity to engage and shape the opinion of these ulema networks and residual tribal structures. The religious leadership is likely to be sharply critical of the terms of any accord that limits the role of sharia and protects gender rights, but tribal leaders are more likely to focus on the economic, security, and governance terms of an accord.

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